When you write a book you put your final thoughts to paper several months before it goes on sale so there’s always a gamble when your manuscript includes a prediction on how an event that is imminent might turn out.

So for Nick Mallett, former Springbok coach and long-serving SuperSport analyst, the strong finish to the warmup phase to the Rugby World Cup by France and South Africa is a case of going according to script.

Mallett has a bit of fun at the end of his book, Insights into the Rugby World Cup, written with Lloyd Burnyard and published by Jonathan Ball, and draws together the arguments he has made to conclude the World Cup final at the end of October will be between the hosts and the reigning World Cup champions.

Having played and coached in both countries, Mallett has an intimate knowledge of both France and South Africa. He also coached current French coach Fabien Galthie in his days with the Cape Town club False Bay - we are talking 1994/1995 - and knows enough about his old friend to know that France are less likely to succumb to the pressure of being hosts in the way they did in 2007.

In that World Cup 16 years ago the French lost on the opening night to Argentina and it was mostly downhill from there.

FRENCH FANS CAN TURN ON THEIR TEAM

As Mallett well knows, the French do turn on their team when it isn’t going well, which does mean there might be a small window of opportunity for the other competitors if New Zealand recover from the Twickenham mauling at the hands of South Africa to beat France in Paris next Friday.

“It would be a huge setback for France if they lost the opening game as the one thing about the French public is that as supportive as they are when their team is doing well, so they quickly turn against them when they deliver beneath expectations,” said Mallett, who was talking at the start of the warmup phase before heading off to spend a month with family overseas.

Mallett was talking from experience, not only from his time in the French club game, but also his Springbok team’s record 52-10 win over France at Parc des Princes, the old headquarters of French rugby, in November 1997.

“I’ve never ever seen a crowd asking for a lap of honour from a visiting team but it happened that day,” recalled Mallett.

“It was the last time the French were using Parc des Princes as their official home base so there was a lot riding on it for them, and at the start of the game their supporters, as they always are, were loud and boisterous in their support and quite antagonistic to us. But I knew French fans can turn on their team, and it happened that day. As we got on top, the mood swung.

“By the time the we scored a sublime try towards the end of the game, where we took the ball through 17 phases and dazzled with our passing game, the chants of ‘Ole, ole, ole…’ we heard from the stands was not for the French but in appreciation of us. They celebrated the score like it was scored by their team.

“The thing about any French team is that you do know when they are under pressure, that is when the crowd goes really quiet. And that needs to be the aim of every team that meets France in this World Cup, you can play the crowd quiet if you perform well.”

TIPS HOSTS AND BOKS TO MEET IN THE DECIDER

Mallett though thinks the French are a different team under Galthie to what they have been in the past, and the consistent performances of the current French team could mean it will take more to turn their public against them this time. Regardless of what happens in the World Cup opener, Mallett expects them to be there at the business end of the competition.

He is also convinced that the Boks have a great chance of being the side that Antoine du Pont’s men will face down in the grand finale at Stade de France.

“For me this would be a dream final, but the Springboks would need to beat Ireland, Scotland, New Zealand and Australia to get there,” he writes in the book.

“If they go the distance and become the first nation in the history of the World Cup to lift the Webb Ellis trophy four times, this will surely have been the most difficult path they have ever taken. It is the ultimate test.

“Even if I put my bias aside, I still genuinely believe the Springboks have what it takes to win. France and Ireland may be the people’s favourites this time around, but under the guidance of Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber, the Springboks tick all the right boxes.”

TURNING RUGBY INTO MORE THAN JUST A GAME

Earlier in the book Mallett wrote about what makes the Boks so good at World Cups, and it all comes down to a fierce nationalism and a tendency to make the global rugby showpiece into something that is more than just sport but a vehicle to unite the country. This is particularly the case once the team gets deeper into the tournament.

In the book, Mallett spoke about how he had been told that in the England dressing room after the 2019 final in Yokohama, the talk among the players was all about their plans for the rest of the season when they returned to their respective clubs.

“You would never get that in a South African dressing room after losing a World Cup final, for us it would be as if someone had died,” he says, and again he has reference - his 1999 team were blown out in extra time of a tight semifinal by a freaky drop-goal from Wallaby flyhalf Stephen Larkham. He says it is a game and a moment he has replayed many times over in his mind.

SA INTENSITY MAKES THEM HARD TO BEAT

He is convinced though that whatever happens in France, the Boks will play with an intensity that will make them very hard to beat.

“An obsessive focus on success and winning is inherent in South Africa’s rugby culture. The team get so much heat from the media when they are not performing well, but are held up and praised as heroes when they deliver the goods. It is completely out of balance because this is only a game, but that is how much Springbok rugby means to the fans.

“If a Springbok player loses in humiliating fashion, he doesn’t want to leave his house. He wants to lock himself up for two weeks until people have forgotten about what happened. No matter what state the team might be in, when the Springboks are at a World Cup and the players have that special green jersey on, they know the ramifications of not giving it their best.

“When you take all of this into account, understanding the dominance of the Springboks at the Rugby World Cup becomes a little easier. Make no mistake, though: France 2023 promises to be potentially their greatest test yet.”